In the course of researching Gaming the Game, I have had the occasion to review statistical analyses of various basketball and betting trends. Predictably, this involved interviewing and/or relying upon a few Sabermetric experts and devotees. Phil Birnbaum, host of the Sabermetric Research blog, posted his most recent analysis of Donaghy claims yesterday: “Did Tim Donaghy really win 70% of his bets against the spread?”
Professor Wayne L. Winston is Professor of Operations & Decision Technologies at Indiana University in their Kelly School of Business. I linked earlier to Dr. Winston‘s current book, Mathletics: How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football, but I’ll do so again here for convenience. In Chapter 36 (pp. 244-47) of Mathletics, “Did Tim Donaghy Fix NBA Games,” Winston briefly analyzes a sampling of 15 games officiated by Donaghy, based on what little evidence has been in the public domain about games on which he bet and officiated. Professor Winston concludes there are statistical curiosities that need to be explored, and offers suggestions for further study in this regard should the appropriate data ever become available.