by David, Purdum, ESPN Chalk
Hundreds of like-minded NFL bets hit multiple sportsbooks Saturday night.
Most were small in stature and emanated from Michigan, New York and Virginia. But they weren’t on the Detroit Lions, New York Giants, New York Jets or Washington Commanders. No, the flood of bets that began Saturday night and continued into Sunday were on, of all things, a kicker.
Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM each reported taking around 500 bets on over/under 1.5 field goals made by Las Vegas Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson against the Denver Broncos on Sunday. All of the bets were on the over at around even money. The largest of the bets at Caesars was $520. No other kicker prop attracted more than 26 bets.
The Carlson bets can be traced, in part, to a 30-year-old New Jersey sports bettor who prefers to go by Ducky and specializes in obscure player prop bets. He hosts a show on the Bearded Bettors podcast and writes a blog on Patreon called Duck Pond. He says he has around 1,900 subscribers and enjoys handicapping kickers, among other niche prop markets.
“You know the bets that everyone kind of scrolls through on DraftKings or Caesars and says, ‘Who the hell bets that?'” Ducky said with a chuckle during a phone interview Sunday. “That’s what I bet. I do kicking props. If there was a punting prop, I would do it.”
Around 7 p.m. Saturday, Ducky posted a recommendation to bet over 1.5 field goals on Carlson, noting that the Broncos have the No. 1 red zone defense and that the Raiders has attempted at least two field goals in each of their first three games. Ducky’s post helped ignite the rush of bets.
Johnny Avello, sportsbook director for DraftKings, told ESPN that it received a “plethora” of over bets on the Carlson prop and “only a handful on the under.”
“When the logic exists, the masses chase and follow,” Avello said.
Caesars Sportsbook managers said while there were many more bets on a kicker prop than normal, the liability wasn’t large enough to catch their attention. Player props, however, are becoming a much bigger part of the action, they said.
“Props are almost the whole job anymore,” said Eric Fenstermaker, senior trading manager for Caesars Sportsbook. “Sometimes a group will release a prop on Twitter or Reddit or wherever they post, and you’ll get bombarded with people betting limit bets. So you’re immediately moving those numbers, but something like the [Carlson prop], where the tickets are so small, it just doesn’t hit our radar.”
“You’d be surprised to see what the tickers look like on game day,” added Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook. “It’s a ton of props.”
Carlson, who entered Sunday having made 32 consecutive field goals, hit four in the Raiders’ 32-23 win over the Broncos, contributing, albeit mildly, to what several sportsbooks said was their first losing Sunday of the NFL season.
