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Fake news, manipulated data and the future of betting fraud

Ryan Rodenberg and Jack Kerr, ESPN

With his blond hair, blue eyes and towering frame — not to mention a thick Saxon accent — Marcel Franke was a surprise call-up for the national soccer team of Timor-Leste in Southeast Asia.

By any measure, this Portuguese-speaking, half-island nation in the Indonesian archipelago is a long way from Franke’s native Germany. Even with improved scouting networks picking up all sorts of gems, the appearance of his name was a bit jarring. Yet according to an online team roster sheet leaked ahead of two World Cup qualifiers in late 2015, Franke was being readied to debut for the country.

The only problem? It was all fake.

Earlier this year, an investigation by the Asian Football Confederation found that the Timorese football association was using falsified birth documents to assemble a team. Many of the implicated players were from Brazil, and some had doctored passports. Interpol is now involved.

Not that Franke, a central defender from SpVgg Greuther Fürth in Germany’s second division, knew any of this when his name appeared on that leaked team sheet. As became clear a few weeks later, the leak was a hoax, and Franke was simply unlucky enough to have his name included in the scam. But Franke was far from alone. Other fake social media accounts have emerged like a game of whack-a-mole, ensnaring numerous other players and teams in the region.

Was it simply a twisted catfishing prank, or was it part of something more sinister, such as a fake news campaign to perpetuate betting fraud?

“What it does indicate is the importance of data and rise of cybercrime when discussing sport corruption and fraud,” said Jake Marsh, the head of integrity operations at the sports data group Perform. “It won’t just be Wiki[pedia] being manipulated.”

It isn’t happening only on far-flung tropical islands, either. As bookmakers across the globe have discovered, data manipulation for gambling purposes is widespread. Betting fraud has even captured the attention of U.S. sports leagues and a member of Congress.


Official concern

Betting fraud is now an issue on Capitol Hill.

In May, Rep. Frank Pallone, a democrat from New Jersey, introduced legislation that would permit states to legalize and regulate sports betting if certain benchmarks are met. Here is what a state would be required to have in place under one of the law’s proposed benchmarks:

This portion of Pallone’s draft bill addresses betting fraud, an always-lurking concern in any discussion about the future of expanded sports gambling in the U.S.

Integrity of the game issues linked to wagering — think point-shaving and outright game-fixing — have concerned sports league stakeholders for at least a century. The rigged 1919 World Series is the most prominent example.

In contrast, betting fraud is subtle and sometimes invisible. Unsuspecting gambling operators and duped bettors are victims. In many cases, betting fraud leaves no trace on the field of play, and the sporting event is usually unaffected. Players, coaches, league officials, fans and broadcasters might be completely unaware. Sportsbooks and betting exchanges that don’t vet the underlying contests could be in the dark, too.

Pallone is aware of betting fraud issues, however. And he isn’t alone in his concern.

Sports industry executives are increasingly recognizing the problem that betting fraud presents. They know that fans (who watch games they bet on) won’t participate if the wagering market is perceived to be corrupt. Indeed, an attorney for a prominent U.S. sports league expressed concern about manipulated gambling markets at a sports law conference last month in Denver.

Although betting fraud takes many forms, some types have roots in stock market scams. Others have a decidedly modern origin: social media.

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